Tesla said in a blog post a few years ago that its Supercharger network would “never be a profit center.” The brand has come a long way since then, and one analyst has estimated the Supercharger network to grow into a multi-billion dollar business in the coming years.
Dan Ives, the managing director and senior equity research analyst at investment firm Wedbush Securities, forecasted that Tesla’s Supercharger business could be worth roughly three to six percent of total revenues, translating to a $10 to $20 billion business by 2030.
The Wall Street analyst based his forecast on multiple factors, including Tesla’s North American Charging Standard (NACS) deal with several automakers, its energy business, investment in artificial intelligence, and an increasing production capacity, among others.
Ives added that Tesla is in a “prime position” to further capitalize on the journey to electrification and that global demand for Tesla EVs is holding up with the recent price cuts. His projection for the Tesla stock is $350.
After reducing the price of Tesla models several times this year, CEO Elon Musk said in July 2023 that the brand could cut prices again if “turbulent times” arise. In its early days, Tesla enticed customers with free unlimited supercharging for the Model S and Model X.
In 2018, the brand withdrew the perk stating its unsustainable nature. Although there are reportedly thousands of Teslas still benefitting from free supercharging. These might be older Teslas which came with the free service, or newer ones with temporary deals.
The brand hasn’t entirely ended the free program, offering inventory deals to Model 3 customers in June 2023, luring them in with three months of free unlimited supercharging, if ordered during a certain period.
After Ford announced adherence to Tesla’s North American Charging Standard this summer, multiple carmakers followed suit, including General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, Honda, Volvo, and Nissan among many others.
The OEMS are not required to pay licensing fees to Tesla for incorporating its NACS connector. However, customers will incur a fee when utilizing the Tesla Supercharger, which could be one of the ways it might thrust into a multi-billion dollar business.